The week of 26 October 2026 is a central-bank week. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all have policy meetings scheduled around the end of October, and the month-end inflation and jobs releases land in the same few days. It is a week for smaller positions and wider stops, not for guessing. Below is what we are watching on gold, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, with example scenarios. Levels are illustrative; check live prices.
The week at a glance
Confirm the exact dates and times on your broker’s economic calendar, because they shift from year to year and are published in your local time only there.
| Day | What traders watch | Most affected |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | Quiet open after the weekend; positioning before the meetings | All three |
| Tuesday | Regional inflation data and consumer confidence surveys | EUR/USD, gold |
| Wednesday | US central bank decision and press conference | Gold, USD/JPY |
| Thursday | European central bank decision; weekly US jobless claims; Bank of Japan around the same time | EUR/USD, USD/JPY |
| Friday | Month-end flows and jobs-related data; euro-area flash inflation typically arrives at month end | All three |
A note on Friday: the US monthly jobs report is normally published on the first Friday of the month. Your calendar will tell you whether this month’s report falls on 30 October or slides to 6 November. Either way, Friday is month-end, and month-end flows alone can move prices without any headline.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold tends to react to two things in a week like this: the direction of US interest-rate expectations and the strength of the dollar. A central bank that sounds cautious about further rate cuts usually supports the dollar and weighs on gold; a central bank that sounds relaxed about inflation usually does the opposite.
Example levels for planning, not predictions:
- Example support: 4,000. A round number that many traders will watch simply because it is round.
- Example resistance: 4,150.
- Scenario A: price holds above support after Wednesday’s decision. Buyers who want to join look for a pullback and a stop below the level, not a chase.
- Scenario B: price closes below support on a daily candle. Sellers wait for a retest from below before acting.
Gold’s daily range often doubles on a decision day. If your usual stop is 10 dollars away, it may need to be 20 this week, which means half the lot size to keep the same risk.
EUR/USD
The euro has two events in one week: its own central bank on Thursday and the US decision the day before. The pair often moves more on the contrast between the two messages than on either one alone. If one bank sounds ready to ease while the other sounds patient, the pair trends; if both say roughly the same thing, the pair chops.
Example levels for planning, not predictions:
- Example support: 1.1500.
- Example resistance: 1.1750.
- What to watch: Tuesday’s regional inflation numbers set expectations for Thursday. A surprise in those numbers can move the pair before the meeting even starts.
- Trap to avoid: the first five minutes after each statement. The spread on
EUR/USDcan widen to several times its normal size, and the first move is frequently reversed.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is the pair most tied to interest-rate gaps, so it is the one that can move most sharply on a week with both a US and a Japanese decision. It is also the pair where official comments about “excessive moves” matter. When the yen weakens quickly, Japanese officials often comment, and traders treat those comments as a warning sign that is worth respecting.
Example levels for planning, not predictions:
- Example support: 148.00.
- Example resistance: 152.00.
- Scenario A: the US side sounds firm and Japan sounds patient. Pressure builds toward the upper level, but every step higher brings a higher chance of official pushback.
- Scenario B: Japan signals a tighter stance. The pair can fall several hundred pips in a session, which is why stops matter more here than on any other major pair this week.
How to trade a week like this
- Shrink the lot, widen the stop. Keep the dollar risk per trade the same as a normal week or lower. The risk management guide shows how to work out lot size from the stop distance.
- Do not hold through the announcement unless the stop is already far away. Slippage during the first seconds can push a close past your stop level.
- Trade the second move, not the first. Wait for the first candle to close after the statement, then look for a direction that agrees with the daily trend.
- Know the session. Gold and
EUR/USDare most liquid in the London and New York overlap;USD/JPYhas an extra window in the Tokyo morning. The best time to trade guide explains the hours in GMT+3. - Write the plan before the week starts. Entry, stop, target and the reason, for each pair, before Monday’s open. If the plan is not written, the trade is not taken.
Checklist for Sunday evening
- Economic calendar checked and converted to your local time.
- Alerts set at the example levels above, adjusted to the live chart.
- Lot size halved for Wednesday and Thursday.
- A rule written down for what you do if price gaps through a stop.
- Phone notifications on for the signal channel, so you see the reason behind each entry, not just the price.
Everything above is a framework, not a forecast. Nobody knows which way any of these pairs will close on Friday, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something. For the basics of how the yellow metal is priced and sized, start with the gold trading basics guide.
Questions, answered plainly.
Should I trade during a central bank announcement?
Most traders are better off waiting. Spreads widen and prices can jump through stop levels in seconds. Let the first minutes pass, then trade the direction the market settles on, with a smaller position than usual.
Are the levels in this outlook trade signals?
No. They are example reference levels to help you plan scenarios. Prices move every second, so check the live chart and set your own entry, stop and target before any trade.
Why does USD/JPY react so much to central bank meetings?
The pair is driven mainly by the gap between US and Japanese interest rates. Any hint that the gap will widen or narrow moves the pair, often more than the actual decision itself.
How should I size positions in a busy news week?
Smaller than usual. Many traders halve their normal lot size and widen the stop to survive the extra volatility, so the dollar risk per trade stays the same or lower.